This is not really my area of expertise but I will give it a go ... Ignoring gender, pregnancy, and lactation for a moment ... the problem is one of selecting cases of acute malnutrition in adults. BMI is a poor indicator as it is strongly by body-shape. There are ways to correct this but they are not considered practicable for most purposes. This leaves use with MUAC as the only practicable indicator. BMI is also problematic in pregnancy because it has a weight component. Even if we could use BMI in adults we could not use it for pregnant adults. Again we are left with MUAC as the only practicable indicator. I think questions such as: - MUAC is not changing during pregnancy; - MUAC is not changing between pregnancy and lactation period - MUAC is not changing during lactation Are not that useful. They are, at best, interesting detail. At worst they are confusing detail. The issue is one of finding a case-defining threshold. There are different ways of doing this. One in norm-referencing ... we use some statistical property of a distribution to define a threshold as we do with (e.g.) W/H z-score < -2 in children. The other is criteria-referencing ... we find a threshold below which a negative outcome becomes likely as we do with (e.g.) MUAC < 115 mm in children. I prefer the latter method as it selects individuals at risk. The problem is complicated by the need for a universal measure. If is possible (e.g.) that maternal weight or BMI is predictive of a negative outcome in all populations but the threshold at which risk increases to unacceptable levels is likely to differ between populations and individuals within the same population. The concentration has been on MUAC because there is some evidence that this is more universal than BMI (i.e. finding of low MUAC being predictive of a negative outcome are more common and more consistent than BMI). We also need to define the population and the adverse outcomes. For this question we have a population of pregnant women but what do we have for negative outcomes? This could be (I guess) ... maternal death, pre-term birth, still birth, low birthweight, low chest circumference at birth, death of baby within three days, death of baby within one months ... it could be a long list. I think that most work has been done on low birthweight. A brief look on PubMed found: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18638377 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18094737 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17230285 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19880445 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17195768 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15980024 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10021785 I advise you to search on your outcomes of interest. It seems to me that there is a scientific consensus that low MUAC is a strong predictor of low birth weight (and other negative outcomes) bur I think that there has been little work on finding a threshold. This is probably why the usual 210mm (sometimes a bit higher) threshold is used (this theshold is for female adults regardless of PLW status). Just a brief look through the literature suggest that this may be too low and something like 260 mm might be better. This is an interesting question and I am very glad you raised it. I think that there is a need for further work on this. The issue is not whether MUAC < 210 is a bad thing. There is good evidence for that in non-pregnant / non-lactating women. The issue is whether that threshold is sensitive enough for PLWs. I think that the ENN moderator should canvas the opinions of MCH experts on this issue and report the results here. Can others comment on this?
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